Wednesday, 20 February 2013

2013 Demonblog award betting markets - first draft

People deal with grief in a number of ways, and one of them is gamble heavily. So, when the grief of being a Melbourne fan becomes all too much for what else is there to do but to gamble heavily (on a completely fictional market). Before we begin I'd like to ask you to behave responsibly, because in line with recent AFL guidelines we'll be responsible for anything you do while reading this blog - and as no actual bets are being taken we don't even have the chance to fleece you out of your cash to pay any fines which might follow.

Anyway, enough of that. Everyone loves a betting market, so here have four. Who will add their name to the honour roll? Given that the votes will be handed out on a weekly basis by yours truly (other than Round 10/11 when I'll be out of town - book yourself in as a guest reporter now) you might want to consult the previous year's votes to work out who I'm unconsciously biased towards before making any outrageous side bets with friends, family or workmates.

First draft starting prices are below. Update based on NAB Cup/practice match form/shattering knee injury disqualifications in the pre-season preview shortly before Round 1 - unless the entire competition has been suspended by then or we've gone bust courtesy of mystery fines.

Remember, bet responsibly. If you have problems call Gambler's Helpline. As usual these markets are purely for entertainment purposes and we're not actually taking any bets unless it's in the Ormond Safeway carpark in the middle of the night and your money is transferred in a brown paper bag.

Allen Jakovich Medal for Player of the Year
5-4-3-2-1 votes in every home and away and finals (very amusing) match. Final pre-season price in brackets.

2005 - Travis Johnstone
2006 - Brock McLean
2007 - Nathan Jones
2008 - Cameron Bruce
2009 - Aaron Davey ($8)
2010 - Brad Green ($4)
2011 - Brent Moloney ($9)
2012 - Nathan Jones [2] ($3.50)

2013 market
After his dominant, record-shattering season and 27 vote victory in last year's award Nathan Jones goes in as one of the hottest favourites of all time as he attempts to go from being the first ever two time winner to the first three time champion.

However it's probably not that simple, he shouldn't be forced to carry the entire midfield on his back again this year and as such probably won't be as much of a standout. Either Grimes or Watts could rack up votes across the backline, Frawley will be solid as usual (though he only polled 11 votes last year) and once injury and form concerns for Clark, Trengove and Sylvia lift they could contend strongly.

With the option of playing most games if available Jack Viney could be the first man ever to win the award in his rookie season or could just poll solidly at the expense of his fellow midfielders and stuff it up for all of them for the first time 2009 when Aaron Davey took the medal home courtesy of half back flank shenanigans while apparently dodging Chris Connolly aiming a sniper rifle at his jatz crackers from the top of the Ponsford Stand.

So, in summary Jones is the raging hot favourite based on last year but there's about 10 different men who could win this. We're set for an exciting year of Jakovich medal calculations.

Value bets - Mark Jamar dropped to three votes in 2012, his lowest tally since 2008 and despite the promise of additional ruck time for Clark and Sellar he could surprise at $35 - as could the 2009 AJ Medallist Aaron Davey who has gone from being half dead on the training track to allegedly 'training the house down' (stop laughing) at some point during pre-season.

Buyer beware - Clark and Trengove are struggling to be fit for Round 1, so how long is it going to take for them to stamp their authority on the season and start racking up votes? Also what chance is there of Jack Grimes remaining un-seriously injured for a full two seasons in a row?

Consider this - 5-1 votes are awarded in every single match, no matter how badly we've played. So don't get fixated on players who poll well when we win, look for consistency instead.

Durability is also important, players can get away with winning the minor awards on a handful of appearances but the lowest tally this award has ever been won with was 29 (Cameron Bruce, 2008) so the victor will still have to play the equivalent of about six BOG's to be in the running unless there's a thrilling blanket finish.

Allen Jakovich Medal facts
  • 2640 votes have been handed out between 69 (ooer) players by myself and various guest reporters since Round 1, 2005
  • Brad Green is the all time leader on 182 votes, from Nathan Jones on 150 and James McDonald on 143
  • If Colin Sylvia gets one vote he will become the only player to have polled in each season of the award. 
  • Brent Moloney received five votes in the first ever AJM game (R1, 2005)
  • Two players, Guy Rigoni and James Sellar, have one career vote. Plenty have none.
And now, the markets:

$2.50 - Nathan Jones
$6 - Jack Grimes
$10 - Jack Watts
$11 - James Frawley
$13 - Mitch Clark
$15 - Colin Sylvia, Jack Trengove, Jack Viney
$18 - Jeremy Howe, Jordie McKenzie
$20 - Tom McDonald
$22 - Chris Dawes, Jimmy Toumpas
$25 - Colin Garland
$30 - Sam Blease, Shannon Byrnes
$35 - Aaron Davey, Mark Jamar, Daniel Nicholson
$40 - Lynden Dunn, Joel Macdonald, Cameron Pedersen
$50 - Rohan Bail, James Strauss
$55 - Luke Tapscott
$65 - David Rodan
$70 - Josh Tynan
$80 - Neville Jetta, James Magner
$100 - Michael Evans, James Sellar
$110 - Tom Gillies, Jake Spencer
$125 - Tom Couch, Max Gawn
$250 - Domenic Barry, Jack Fitzpatrick
$500 - Troy Davis
$700 - Rory Taggert, Dean Terlich
$750 - Matt Jones, Dean Kent
$1000 - Nathan Stark, Mitch Clisby

Marcus Seecamp Medal for Defender of the Year
Highest vote getter for a defender. Running defenders who spend too much time in the midfield will be disqualified from receiving the award at the discretion of the committee.

2005 - Nathan Carroll and Ryan Ferguson (shared)
2006 - Jared Rivers
2007 - Paul Wheatley
2008 - Matthew Whelan
2009 - James Frawley ($22)
2010 - James Frawley [2] ($3.50)
2011 - James Frawley [3] ($4)
2012 - Jack Grimes ($7) 

2013 market
Despite Grimes starting at a better price for the Jakovich he's slightly behind Frawley because of concerns that he might be DQ'ed for too much midfield action, whereas unless we're going for another comedy forward line switch again next year there's no way Chip is going anywhere.

Others who run the chance of being played elsewhere too much and suffering a DQ from the Seecamp are Tapscott, Dunn, Pedersen, Watts and Sellar. Their prices have been adjusted to represent this, so please no hate mail from Cameron Pedersen fans.

McDonald outpolled Frawley last year, but we'll find out this year if The King of Sizzle can back it up. Garland could also be a surprise contender if he's played in position for the whole year.

Value bets - Fact: Joel Macdonald is underrated. Has never won more than 14 votes in a season, but if he can play 22 games he'll provide you with a decent run for your money. Tom Gillies could be a surprise packet, considering that nobody knows who he is.

Buyer beware - This is the worst category for DQ's, and while Watts could very well win this if he's down back taking grabs all year there's every chance he'll play six or seven games as a permanent forward and get the boot.

Consider this - Frawley, Garland, Macdonald and Tapscott all polled lower totals in 2012 than they did in 2011. Also consider the possibility that we might actually be good enough that the defence don't have to deal with 500 inside 50's every quarter, and that they might not rack up many votes amongst them.

$2.50 - James Frawley
$4 - Jack Grimes
$8 - Tom McDonald
$12 - Colin Garland
$15 - Jack Watts
$20 - Joel Macdonald
$25 - Luke Tapscott
$30 - Lynden Dunn, Tom Gillies
$50 - Cameron Pedersen
$90 - James Sellar
$100 - Troy Davis, Dean Terlich
$1000 - NO ELIGIBLE PLAYER (none of the above receive any votes)

Jeff Hilton Rising Star Award
The highest scoring player in the Jakovich Medal count who has either played zero AFL games before the start of the season OR debuted in the final four games (not including byes) of the preceding season. Known as the Jeff Hilton Rookie of the Year 2005-2011

No 2012 players are eligible, with none having debuted in the final four matches of the 2012 premiership season.

2005 - No players eligible.
2006 - Matthew Bate
2007 - Michael Newton
2008 - Cale Morton
2009 - Jack Grimes ($4 fav)
2010 - Tom Scully ($5) [AWARD REVOKED SEPTEMBER 2011]
2011 - Jeremy Howe ($30)
2012 - Tom McDonald ($8)

2013 market
I'd fall out of my seat if either of the top two don't win this. Unless nobody gets a votes a'la 2005 it would be an enormous upset for either Viney or Toumpas to be beaten if they play more than half a dozen games each.

Value bets - Terlich is apparently (here we go again) training the house down, and they didn't recruit all these 20 somethings as a favour to the Casey Scorpions. Could surprise at $50's but will do well to beat either of the big guns.

Buyer beware - There's plenty of buzz on Toumpas, but unless there's a disaster Viney will play more matches. The Teen Idol might play Round 1, but there's no guarantee of it - unlike Son of Todd who will almost have to be dead or in prison to miss out. The Toump could also find himself relegated to the dreaded red/green vest as we try to ease him through his first year.

Consider this - If none of them get a vote nobody gets the award and everyone does their dough.

$3 - Jack Viney
$8 - Jimmy Toumpas
$40 - Domenic Barry
$50 - Dean Terlich
$70 - Troy Davis
$80 - Dean Kent, Matt Jones, Rory Taggert.
$125 - Mitch Clisby, Nathan Stark

Jim Stynes Medal for Ruckman of the Year
Highest scoring player in the overall count who has played primarily as a ruckman during the year. Ruckmen who spend time in the forward or backline will still be eligible at the discretion of the committee. Formerly the Strawbs O'Dwyer Medal between 2008 and 2010. 2005 to 2007 medals were awarded retrospectively for top scoring ruckman in the overall count.

2005 - Jeff White
2006 - Jeff White (2)
2007 - Jeff White (3)
2008 - Paul Johnson
2009 - Mark Jamar ($3)
2010 - Mark Jamar (2) ($1.50 fav)
2011 - Stefan Martin ($30)
2012 - Stefan Martin (2) ($9)

2013 market
Clark and Pedersen could poll well in the overall market but not be eligible for this one, and Fitzpatrick could also be DQ'ed for excessive forward line appearances so there's really only one way this is going.

Value bets - The Spencil actually looked half decent late in 2012, and if he is still regularly required with Pedersen/Clark as alternatives he could snaffle a couple of votes and bring the house down by winning a low scoring contest.

Buyer beware - Jamar should win this in a canter, but there's every possible chance that if he doesn't get one vote then nobody else who is eligible will score one either.

Consider this - I miss the Stefan Martin Experience already.

$1.25 - Mark Jamar
$18 - Mitch Clark, Cameron Pedersen
$30 - Jake Spencer
$45 - Max Gawn
$50 - Jack Fitzpatrick
$100 - Chris Dawes

Other markets

$5000 - That new Blogger will stop putting random line breaks in all my posts. If anybody's going to break up paragraphs in an illogical fashion it will be me, and it won't be deliberate. 

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