Monday 24 January 2011

2011 Demonblog award betting markets - first draft

Welcome to the start of our seventh year of Demonblog magic and mania. The entire off-season has been consumed with thoughts of gimmick headlines that seemed like genius at the time but were soon forgotten, and as you can see by the headline to this post they've not been replaced with anything yet.

I can't believe this is the 7th year, I didn't think it was going to last ten minutes. Thanks to everyone who has been with us (and when I say us I mean "me", as well as some killer guest reporters over the years) the whole time, and to those of you who have come along part of the way through may I be the first to say that you didn't miss much.

So, it's less than a month until the first bounce on the new farce of a NAB Cup and yes gambling addicts, it's that time of the year again when we ceremonially open the season by framing the markets for the not even remotely famous suite of Demonblog awards.

Time to stop throwing good money after bad by trying to double Igor Superplex Jr to win the Australian Open into the Cocos & Keeling Islands for the World Cup and instead throw every cent you have into our awards season. After all why wouldn't you have your money on it? It's not like the whole thing is decided on the whim of some idiot behind a keyboard usually writing in a highly emotional state or anything?

Alas you can't bet on it. You could ring Centrebet up and try but they'd probably laugh in your face and flag your account for review. So the following is for fictional purposes only and if you have any issues with gambling please contact Gamblers Helpline on 1800 858 858.

All position based markets subject to change when somebody points out the players I've forgotten.

Allen Jakovich Medal for Player of the Year
5-4-3-2-1 votes in every home and away and finals (stop laughing, it happened in two years) match. Pre-season price in brackets.

2005 - Travis Johnstone
2006 - Brock McLean
2007 - Nathan Jones
2008 - Cameron Bruce
2009 - Aaron Davey ($8)
2010 - Brad Green ($4)

2011 market
Difficult to pick a winner in this one. Green might be a bit short considering he's coming off a career best year and still only just won the award last year. Sylvia threatens to put together a killer season if he stays fit and doesn't get suspended, and Davey can't be discounted as a previous winner.

Jamar smashed the glass ceiling for ruckmen getting votes last year but could find himself playing more up front if The Spencil comes on or Campbell stays fit all year. Then there's last year's runner-up Frawley, now that he's injured his price has suffered. Could represent value for the canny investor.

Will also be plenty of money for Grimes and either half of Scullgove I'd assume

$3 - Brad Green
$3.50 - Colin Sylvia
$4 - Aaron Davey
$5 - Mark Jamar
$9 - Jack Trengove, Jack Grimes, Brent Moloney, Tom Scully
$10 - Nathan Jones
$12 - Liam Jurrah, James Frawley
$15 - Cale Morton
$18 - Jared Rivers, Ricky Petterd
$20 - Jack Watts, Jordan Gysberts, Matthew Bate, Jordie McKenzie, Lynden Dunn
$40 - Colin Garland, Joel Macdonald, Clint Bartram
$60 - Jamie Bennell, Addam Maric, Austin Wonaeamirri
$70 - Matthew Warnock, Rohan Bail
$80 - Luke Tapscott, Neville Jetta, James Strauss
$90 - Robert Campbell, Jake Spencer, Sam Blease
$100 - Tom McNamara, Stefan Martin, Michael Newton
$250 - Max Gawn, Jack Fitzpatrick, Lucas Cook
$500 - Jeremy Howe, Troy Davis, Tom McDonald
$1000 - Kelvin Lawrence, Daniel Nicholson, Michael Evans, Cameron Johnston

Marcus Seecamp Medal for Defender of the Year
Highest vote getter for a defender. Running defenders who spend too much time in the midfield will be disqualified from receiving the award at the discretion of the committee.

2005 - Nathan Carroll and Ryan Ferguson (shared)
2006 - Jared Rivers
2007 - Paul Wheatley
2008 - Matthew Whelan
2009 - James Frawley ($22)
2010 - James Frawley [2] ($3.50)

2011 market
Frawley's injury throws this one wide open. He would have started an outrageously priced favourite had he not been injured, but now he's back to level pegging with Grimes. Beware punters, Grime Time is every possible chance of being DQ'ed for spending too much time in the midfield.

$4 - Jack Grimes, James Frawley
$8 - Jared Rivers
$10 - Colin Garland
$12 - Matthew Warnock, Joel Macdonald
$25 - Tom McNamara, Jamie Bennell
$40 - Stefan Martin, James Strauss

Jeff Hilton Medal for Rookie of the Year
The highest scoring player in the Jakovich Medal count who has either played zero AFL games before the start of the season OR debuted in the final four games (not including byes) of the preceding season. As no players made their debut between rounds 19 and 22 only players with zero career games are eligible.

2005 - No players eligible.
2006 - Matthew Bate
2007 - Ricky Petterd and Michael Newton (shared)
2008 - Cale Morton
2009 - Jack Grimes ($4 fav)
2010 - Tom Scully ($5)

The punters have come early for Tapscott in a big way, but I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that it's not going to be a massive year for rookies picking up votes. None of the players marked below to score a solitary point this year is looking like a good pick at 12-1. With nobody having had a taste of senior action or a chance to cement their position in the last month of 2010 it's unlikely that any of these players will be walk-up starters early in the season, and with the likes of SCULLGOVE, Gysberts and (for the love of god please) Watts hovering around taking up votes there might not be too many crumbs for the kids.

2011 market
$4 - Luke Tapscott
$8 - Sam Blease
$15 - Lucas Cook
$20 - Jack Fitzpatrick
$30 - Max Gawn, Jeremy Howe
$50 - Troy Davis, Tom McDonald
$100 - Kelvin Lawrence, Daniel Nicholson, Michael Evans, Cameron Johnston

Jim Stynes Medal for Ruckman of the Year (Formerly the Strawbs O'Dwyer Medal between 2008 and 2010. 2005 to 2007 medals were awarded retrospectively)
Top scoring ruckman in the overall count.

2005 - Jeff White
2006 - Jeff White [2]
2007 - Jeff White [3]
2008 - Paul Johnson
2009 - Mark Jamar ($3)
2010 - Mark Jamar [2] ($1.50 fav)

The Russian stormed to victory last year as the red hot favourite and this year seems almost certain to do the same barring injury or a nightmare run of form.

2011 market
$1.25 - Mark Jamar
$20 - Jake Spencer, Robert Campbell
$25 - Jack Fitzpatrick
$30 - Max Gawn

Paul Prymke Plate for Pre-Season Performance
2008 - Aaron Davey
2009 - Cameron Bruce
2010 - Brad Green

No betting on this one, you can't rely on who the paper said was the best in a game in Cairns when they probably didn't even have a journo there and just reported on what their pissed mate said down the phone - and that's why this award continues to be handed out just because it has a gimmick name. Note that Davey won it the year Bruce won the Jakovich and vice-versa, then Thank God Brad Green's Here just doubled up on both of them last year because he is a superhuman machine.

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