Saturday, 17 March 2018

Pre-season updates and final betting markets

Welcome to the lowest effort post of the year, where we update our January betting markets and predictions based on a lot of pre-season games that I didn't watch, news about other clubs that I paid scant interest to and The Vibe.

Remember, if you're gambling real money on these markets bet responsibly and seek professional help.

Final betting markets

Allen Jakovich Medal for Best Overall Player
Oliver comes off slightly to account for Petracca's joint Prymke plate winning pre-season campaign. Elsewhere Viney eases on injury fears, while Gawn and Neal-Bullen are the big movers in the top half of the draw. The biggest mover overall is Bayley Fritsch, slashing his price in half in anticipation of a Round 1 debut, followed by Josh Wagner who won't win but is clearly closer to playing senior games than most in his range.

$3.25 - Clayton Oliver (-$0.25)
$4.25 - Christian Petracca (+$0.75)
$8.50 - Jack Viney (-$1.50)
$11 - Michael Hibberd (-$1), Max Gawn (+$4)
$13 - Nathan Jones (-$4)
$15 - Neville Jetta
$20 - Jesse Hogan, Jake Lever
$22 - Tom McDonald
$25 - Jayden Hunt (-$3), Alex Neal-Bullen (+$10), Christian Salem
$27 - Jordan Lewis, (-$2), Jake Melksham (+$3)
$30 - Jeff Garlett
$35 - Dom Tyson
$40 - Angus Brayshaw, Bernie Vince
$45 - Cameron Pedersen
$50 - Mitch Hannan, James Harmes
$55 - Oscar McDonald (+$5)
$60 - Tomas Bugg
$70 - Sam Frost, Corey Maynard
$90 - Harley Balic (-$10), Billy Stretch (+$10)
$125 - Bayley Fritsch (+$125)
$140 - Dean Kent (-$30), Aaron vandenBerg ($-15), Sam Weideman ($-15)
$200 - Joel Smith (-$40)
$270 - Josh Wagner (+$55)
$325 - Tim Smith
$350 - Jay Kennedy-Harris, Dion Johnstone
$500 - Charlie Spargo
$650 - Oskar Baker
$750 - Declan Keilty, Harrison Petty
$900 - Mitch King
$1000 - Lachlan Filipovic, Pat McKenna (-$100)

Marcus Seecamp Medal for Defender of the Year
Not a great deal of movement, with Hibberd retaining favouritism. The big mover is Tom McSizzle, sliding rapidly as I start to become confident that we'll keep him as a forward and not put him back into defence out of panic by Round 5. I expect he will be long disqualified from this award by mid-season.

$5 - Michael Hibberd
$7 - Neville Jetta
$10 - Jake Lever
$20 - Christian Salem
$22 - Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald
$30 - Bernie Vince
$45 - Sam Frost, Josh Wagner
$50 - Tom McDonald
$80 - James Harmes
$120 - Harrison Petty
$200 - Tomas Bugg, Jake Melksham
$400 - Cameron Pedersen
$750 - ANY OTHER PLAYER, Pat McKenna
$1000 - NO ELIGIBLE PLAYER

Jeff Hilton Rising Star Medal
Of course, Corey Maynard is eligible due to debuting in the last four rounds of 2017, but based on the pre-season it's a no brainer that Fritsch as leapt past him and into favouritism. None of the other eligible players look like getting a game any time soon, so they've all been moved out and 'no eligible player' has come right in.

$4.50 - Bayley Fritsch
$9 - Corey Maynard
$30 - Dion Johnstone, Charlie Spargo
$60 - Oskar Baker
$85 - Declan Keilty, Harrison Petty
$100 - Max King, Pat McKenna
$125 - Lachlan Filipovic
$150 - NO ELIGIBLE PLAYER

Jim Stynes Medal for Ruckman of the Year
Gawn remains the red hot favourite, pushing everyone else out. Smart gamblers may wish to get on Pedersen or McDonald, hoping that they will bank votes elsewhere on the ground and then take advantage of a Maximum mishap to reach the 10 hitout per game qualification mark.

$1.10 - Max Gawn
$20 - Cameron Pedersen
$25 - NO ELIGIBLE PLAYER, Tom McDonald
$90 - Declan Keilty
$135 - Max King
$175 - Lachlan Filipovic
$200 - ANY OTHER PLAYER

Demonblog's Chosen 22
There's no doubt Vince will play, but I narrowly left him out in favour of Maynard. Corey's practice matches weren't anything special, but he gets the nod just because of Viney's absence.

B: Jetta, O. McDonald, Hibberd
HB: Salem, Lever, Hunt
C: Tyson, Oliver, Neal-Bullen
HF: Petracca, Hogan, Melksham
F: Garlett, T. McDonald, Hannan
Foll: Gawn, Jones, Lewis
Int: Brayshaw, Pedersen, Maynard, Fritsch

IN: Fritsch
OUT: Viney (inj)

Projected ladder
Changes in position from the first draft pre-season ladder are marked.

1. Adelaide
2. Sydney (+1)
3. Richmond (+3)
4. Geelong (-2)
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5. Port Adelaide (+1)
6. GWS (+1)
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7. Melbourne (+1)
8. Western Bulldogs (+1)
9. Essendon (-5)
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10. Hawthorn
11. St Kilda
12. West Coast
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13. Brisbane (+1)
14. Collingwood (-1)
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15. Carlton
16. Gold Coast
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17. North Melbourne
18. Fremantle

Yes, I've picked us in the eight. But the saver is that we'll probably finish ninth in a thriller again. Becoming the new Richmond isn't so bad if it eventually leads to a flag.

1 comment:

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